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1In development.
2Access provided via FIX bridge through CN First International Futures Limited.
3Access provided via FIX bridge through local brokers, including Samsung Futures.
As mentioned last month in Conquering Chaos: Fari Hamzei, Hamzei Analytics, we’ve partnered with Futures Radio Show host Anthony Crudele to ask successful traders how they’ve managed the chaos on the most chaotic trading days of their careers.
Today, we’re recapping stories from three of Anthony’s recent guests.
We hope you enjoy their first-hand accounts of conquering chaos.
The following is a guest post authored by Steve H. Hanke (Twitter: @steve_hanke). He is a professor of applied economics and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, a TT CampusConnect™ partner school. He is a senior fellow and director of the Troubled Currencies Project at the Cato Institute.
This post was originally published on the Cato Institute blog. At the time of publication in September, Steve was predicting crude oil futures would be priced around $45-46/bbl in mid-November. The market appears to be confirming his projections, with CLZ6 closing yesterday at $48.03.
Here we are again. Just when we all thought we had it figured out, the election whizzed on the electric fence. Now it is time for the long awaited December FOMC meeting. I’ve written before about positive expected value and a process focused trading discipline. Focusing on the process, i.e., the positive expected value, rather than the outcome enables one to take on asymmetric payoffs with positive expectation even when the payoff is unlikely. Right now, we are heading into this meeting, and the market is pricing the likelihood of a tightening at near certainty. Count me in on expecting a rate hike, but if you have learned anything this year, it should be to expect the unexpected.
Brett N. Steenbarger, Ph.D. is Clinical Associate Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at SUNY Upstate Medical University in Syracuse, NY, where he specializes in the teaching and practice of brief approaches to counseling and psychotherapy. Brett’s main work is with traders and portfolio managers in the financial markets at hedge funds, proprietary trading firms and other money management organizations. Brett is the author of the TraderFeed blog and several books on trading psychology, including “The Psychology of Trading” (2003), “Enhancing Trader Performance” (2006), “The Daily Trading Coach” (2009) and “Trading Psychology 2.0” (2015). He is currently working on a third edition of “The Art and Science of Brief Psychotherapies,” an academic text and training guide for mental health professionals.
Given that we are in the midst of a chaos-themed campaign showing traders how to get through the most chaotic market periods using the TT® platform, we wanted to get Brett’s take on the industry and how analytics and psychology drive decisions in times of chaos. Read on for his perspective.
The following is a guest post authored by Geoffrey Parker. He is a professor of engineering at Dartmouth College and a visiting scholar and research fellow at the MIT Initiative for the Digital Economy. Before joining academia, he held positions in engineering and finance at General Electric. He has made significant contributions to the economics of network effects as co-developer of the theory of two-sided networks. He received his BS from Princeton and his MS and PhD from MIT. You can follow Geoff on Twitter at @g2parker.
Given the dramatic change now underway in financial markets and exchanges, it’s tempting to believe that the industry is in uncharted territory. And, as we’ll see below, there is some truth to this view. However, it’s worth remembering that the industry went through a similar phase of change when exchanges such as the CME became electronic instead of physical markets. Floor traders gave way to traders sitting at computer terminals and, increasingly, to algorithmic trading machines. Electronic completion offered a number of immediate advantages that included better price discovery, improved access to markets and a better ability to create customized products that better fit needs. For example, firms that wished to smooth the value of assets such as power plants or pipelines against commodity price volatility were able to tailor their hedging strategies to their exact needs.