I recently was interviewed for a podcast by Chat With Traders. I spoke about expected value and the importance of process over outcome. It’s one thing to discuss in general terms the idea of positive expected value and the idea to focus on process rather than outcome. It’s another to actually see it in action.
I’d like to go through a trade we recently had on. This will make the concept concrete.
The idea of expected value is relatively straightforward: one must combine the probability of a financial event occurring and its outcome. For example, consider an investment where there’s a 25% chance of losing $10 and a 75% chance of making $10. Multiply the outcomes by the probabilities to get the expected value. In this case, 0.25 x -$10 + 0.75 x $10 = $5. That’s easy enough.
The tree of possibilities.
Would you play that game? You likely would.